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High trust deduction or blunder?

Alice's view | Bob's view | 2026-10-02

cards in the deckred1ryellowygreen1gbluebwhite1wmulticolormblack powder

​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens1 clue tokens2 clue tokens3 clue tokens4 clue tokens5 clue tokens6 clue tokens7 clue tokens8 clue tokens

Discardedry1gbwm3

multicolour4m,with a multicolour 4clue,green3g,with a green 3clue,green4g,with a green 4clue,red3r,with a red 3clue,Alice 🡲red4r,with a red 4clue,yellow1y,with a yellow 1clue,red2r,with a red 2clue,red2r,with a red 2clue,Bob 🡲green1g,with a green 1clue,black powder4,with a black powder 4clue,green3g,with a green 3clue,green2g,with a green 2clue,Cathy 🡲multicolour3m,with a multicolour 3clue,red1r,with a red 1clue,yellow4y,with a yellow 4clue,blue2b,with a blue 2clue,Donald 🡲green5g,with a green 5clue,yellow5y,with a yellow 5clue,white4w,with a white 4clue,white5w,with a white 5clue,Emily 🡲

Alice to Cathy: this card is a 3.

Alice skips Bob with the green3g,with a green 3clue, fix to encourage Bob's first discard of the game.

Since there is high trust, the unnecessary loss of yellow1y,with a yellow 1clue, earlier means Bob holds at least one other copy of yellow1y,with a yellow 1clue,.

cards in the deckred1ryellowygreen1gbluebwhite1wmulticolormblack powder

​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens1 clue tokens2 clue tokens3 clue tokens4 clue tokens5 clue tokens6 clue tokens7 clue tokens8 clue tokens

Discardedr2y1gbwm3

multicolour4m,with a multicolour 4clue,green3g,with a green 3clue,green4g,with a green 4clue,red3r,with a red 3clue,Alice 🡲red3r,with a red 3clue,red4r,with a red 4clue,yellow1y,with a yellow 1clue,red2r,with a red 2clue,Bob 🡲green1g,with a green 1clue,black powder4,with a black powder 4clue,green3g,with a green 3clue,green2g,with a green 2clue,Cathy 🡲multicolour3m,with a multicolour 3clue,red1r,with a red 1clue,yellow4y,with a yellow 4clue,blue2b,with a blue 2clue,Donald 🡲green5g,with a green 5clue,yellow5y,with a yellow 5clue,white4w,with a white 4clue,white5w,with a white 5clue,Emily 🡲

Bob discards red2r,with a red 2clue,. Again since there is high trust, Bob knows they must hold the other copy of red2r,with a red 2clue, as well.

cards in the deckred1ryellowygreen2gbluebwhite1wmulticolormblack powder

​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens1 clue tokens2 clue tokens3 clue tokens4 clue tokens5 clue tokens6 clue tokens7 clue tokens8 clue tokens

Discardedr2y14gbw4m3

multicolour4m,with a multicolour 4clue,green3g,with a green 3clue,green4g,with a green 4clue,red3r,with a red 3clue,Alice 🡲red3r,with a red 3clue,red4r,with a red 4clue,yellow1y,with a yellow 1clue,red2r,with a red 2clue,Bob 🡲red1r,with a red 1clue,green1g,with a green 1clue,black powder4,with a black powder 4clue,green3g,with a green 3clue,Cathy 🡲multicolour3m,with a multicolour 3clue,multicolour3m,with a multicolour 3clue,red1r,with a red 1clue,blue2b,with a blue 2clue,Donald 🡲yellow3y,with a yellow 3clue,green5g,with a green 5clue,yellow5y,with a yellow 5clue,white5w,with a white 5clue,Emily 🡲

Cathy plays green2g,with a green 2clue,.

Donald discards yellow4y,with a yellow 4clue,.

Emily discards white4w,with a white 4clue,.

cards in the deckred1ryellowygreen2gbluebwhite1wmulticolormblack powder

​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens1 clue tokens2 clue tokens3 clue tokens4 clue tokens5 clue tokens6 clue tokens7 clue tokens8 clue tokens

Discardedr2y14gbw4m3

multicolour4m,with a multicolour 4clue,green3g,with a green 3clue,green4g,with a green 4clue,red3r,with a red 3clue,Alice 🡲red3r,with a red 3clue,red4r,with a red 4clue,yellow1y,with a yellow 1clue,red2r,with a red 2clue,Bob 🡲red1r,with a red 1clue,green1g,with a green 1clue,black powder4,with a black powder 4clue,green3g,with a green 3clue,Cathy 🡲multicolour3m,with a multicolour 3clue,multicolour3m,with a multicolour 3clue,red1r,with a red 1clue,blue2b,with a blue 2clue,Donald 🡲yellow3y,with a yellow 3clue,green5g,with a green 5clue,yellow5y,with a yellow 5clue,white5w,with a white 5clue,Emily 🡲

Alice to Emily: these three cards are 5s.

Alice saves green5g,with a green 5clue, because they think Bob knows to play yellow1y,with a yellow 1clue, and red2r,with a red 2clue,, Cathy will play green3g,with a green 3clue, and Donald has no non-trash cards that can't be saved.

Note this encourages:

• play of green3g,with a green 3clue, ​ but with black powder4,with a black powder 4clue, on chop ​
• discard of trash red1r,with a red 1clue, ​ and future discard of duplicate multicolour3m,with a multicolour 3clue, ​
• discard of yellow3y,with a yellow 3clue, ​ and potentially locking Emily's hand ​

If Alice instead discards, Cathy could save green5g,with a green 5clue, and Emily may gain something to clue in Alice's hand, turning all ​ into ​.

cards in the deckred1ryellowygreen2gbluebwhite1wmulticolormblack powder

​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens​ clue tokens1 clue tokens2 clue tokens3 clue tokens4 clue tokens5 clue tokens6 clue tokens7 clue tokens8 clue tokens

Discardedr2y14gbw4m3

multicolour4m,with a multicolour 4clue,green3g,with a green 3clue,green4g,with a green 4clue,red3r,with a red 3clue,Alice 🡲red3r,with a red 3clue,red4r,with a red 4clue,yellow1y,with a yellow 1clue,red2r,with a red 2clue,Bob 🡲red1r,with a red 1clue,green1g,with a green 1clue,black powder4,with a black powder 4clue,green3g,with a green 3clue,Cathy 🡲multicolour3m,with a multicolour 3clue,multicolour3m,with a multicolour 3clue,red1r,with a red 1clue,blue2b,with a blue 2clue,Donald 🡲yellow3y,with a yellow 3clue,green5g,with a green 5clue,yellow5y,with a yellow 5clue,white5w,with a white 5clue,Emily 🡲

However does Bob really know if any of their slots can be safely played?

Assuming yellow1y,with a yellow 1clue, and red2r,with a red 2clue, were in Bob's starting hand, the possible combinations were:

red2r,with a red 2clue,yellow1y,with a yellow 1clue,black powder,with a black powder clue,red2r,with a red 2clue, Bob 🡲 red2r,with a red 2clue,black powder,with a black powder clue,yellow1y,with a yellow 1clue,red2r,with a red 2clue, Bob 🡲 black powder,with a black powder clue,red2r,with a red 2clue,yellow1y,with a yellow 1clue,red2r,with a red 2clue, Bob 🡲

yellow1y,with a yellow 1clue,red2r,with a red 2clue,black powder,with a black powder clue,red2r,with a red 2clue, Bob 🡲 yellow1y,with a yellow 1clue,black powder,with a black powder clue,red2r,with a red 2clue,red2r,with a red 2clue, Bob 🡲 black powder,with a black powder clue,yellow1y,with a yellow 1clue,red2r,with a red 2clue,red2r,with a red 2clue, Bob 🡲

where black powder,with a black powder clue, is any card, for example an unplayable multicolour2m,with a multicolour 2clue,.

Can Bob narrow down the possibilities?

If there were just one more piece of contextual information to reduce the possible slot positions, such as a nice multicolour2m,with a multicolour 2clue, bluff target that went unused while yellow1y,with a yellow 1clue, / red2r,with a red 2clue, was in slot 1 of the starting hand, then the only possibilities that remain would be: black powder,with a black powder clue,red2r,with a red 2clue,yellow1y,with a yellow 1clue,red2r,with a red 2clue, Bob 🡲 black powder,with a black powder clue,yellow1y,with a yellow 1clue,red2r,with a red 2clue,red2r,with a red 2clue, Bob 🡲 and so after red2r,with a red 2clue, discard then slots 3 and 4 must be playable. However in the game there were only two valid bluff targets available:

1. repeat blue or 2 on blue2b,with a blue 2clue, (which gives no new information on the target)
2. red1r,with a red 1clue, trash bluff (which protects yellow4y,with a yellow 4clue, for one extra turn)

both options are low in value and not enough context for Bob to know that their slot 1 was unplayable.

But why would Alice skip Bob with the green3g,with a green 3clue, fix or the green5g,with a green 5clue, save?

Just one example is enough to show that Bob should discard with a playable slot 1: With red2r,with a red 2clue,multicolour2m,with a multicolour 2clue,yellow1y,with a yellow 1clue,red2r,with a red 2clue, Bob 🡲 the team will wait for red2r,with a red 2clue, discard so that they can clue red to splash a valuable multicolour2m,with a multicolour 2clue,.

From Alice's view there was also low urgency to clue yellow1y,with a yellow 1clue, / red2r,with a red 2clue, since yellow2y,with a yellow 2clue, / red3r,with a red 3clue, were not visible.

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Endgame

3cards in the deckred3ryellow4ygreen5gblue5bwhite1wmulticolormblack powder 3 clue tokens

card back,with a clue,card back,with a clue,card back4,with a 4clue,card back5,with a 5clue, Alice 🡲 white2w,with a white 2clue,black powder,with a black powder clue,black powder,with a black powder clue,black powder,with a black powder clue, Bob 🡲 black powder,with a black powder clue,black powder,with a black powder clue,red4r,with a red 4clue,white5w,with a white 5clue, Cathy 🡲 white3w,with a white 3clue,black powder,with a black powder clue,black powder,with a black powder clue,yellow5y,with a yellow 5clue, Donald 🡲 white4w,with a white 4clue,black powder,with a black powder clue,black powder,with a black powder clue,white3w,with a white 3clue, Emily 🡲

What is the critical colour?

Grouped by colour:

black powderA,with a black powder clue,black powderB,with a black powder clue,black powderC,with a black powder clue,yellow5yD,with a yellow 5clue,black powderE,with a black powder clue, ​

black powderA,with a black powder clue,black powderB,with a black powder clue,red4rC,with a red 4clue,black powderD,with a black powder clue,black powderE,with a black powder clue, ​ red5rA,with a red 5clue, ​

whitewA,with a white clue,white2wB,with a white 2clue,black powderC,with a black powder clue,black powderD,with a black powder clue,white3wE,with a white 3clue, ​ white4wA,with a white 4clue,black powderB,with a black powder clue,white5wC,with a white 5clue, ​

white (1 clue + 4 plays + 3 empty = 8 turns)

What is the critical card?

white2w,with a white 2clue,

What is the critical move?

​

A) Alice clues Bob white2w,with a white 2clue, / white2w,with a white 2clue,

hint: don't choose A

B) Alice clues Donald white3w,with a white 3clue, / white3w,with a white 3clue,

C) Alice clues Emily white4w,with a white 4clue, / white4w,with a white 4clue,

D) Alice discards white4w,with a white 4clue,

E) Alice (mis)plays white4w,with a white 4clue,

F) Alice discards slot 1

G) Alice (mis)plays slot 1

What is the maximum score?

29

1. Group by colour:

black powderA,with a black powder clue,black powderB,with a black powder clue,black powderC,with a black powder clue,yellow5yD,with a yellow 5clue,black powderE,with a black powder clue, ​

black powderA,with a black powder clue,black powderB,with a black powder clue,red4rC,with a red 4clue,black powderD,with a black powder clue,black powderE,with a black powder clue, ​ red5rA,with a red 5clue, ​

whitewA,with a white clue,white2wB,with a white 2clue,black powderC,with a black powder clue,black powderD,with a black powder clue,white3wE,with a white 3clue, ​ white4wA,with a white 4clue,black powderB,with a black powder clue,white5wC,with a white 5clue, ​

2. Serialise:

whitewA,with a white clue,white2wB,with a white 2clue,red4rC,with a red 4clue,yellow5yD,with a yellow 5clue,white3wE,with a white 3clue, ​ white4wA,with a white 4clue,black powderB,with a black powder clue,white5wC,with a white 5clue,black powderD,with a black powder clue,black powderE,with a black powder clue, ​ red5rA,with a red 5clue, ​

3cards in the deck2cards in the deck1cards in the deck0cards in the deckcards in the deck ​ cards in the deckcards in the deckcards in the deckcards in the deck ​

• There are not enough turns for Alice to clue white2w,with a white 2clue, and play both white4w,with a white 4clue, and red5r,with a red 5clue,.
• Can Alice shorten the critical path?

30

1. Group by colour:

black powderA,with a black powder clue,black powderB,with a black powder clue,black powderC,with a black powder clue,yellow5yD,with a yellow 5clue,black powderE,with a black powder clue, ​

black powderA,with a black powder clue,black powderB,with a black powder clue,red4rC,with a red 4clue,black powderD,with a black powder clue,black powderE,with a black powder clue, ​ red5rA,with a red 5clue, ​

whitewA,with a white clue,white2wB,with a white 2clue,black powderC,with a black powder clue,white3wD,with a white 3clue,white4wE,with a white 4clue, ​ black powderA,with a black powder clue,black powderB,with a black powder clue,white5wC,with a white 5clue, ​

2. Serialise:

whitewA,with a white clue,white2wB,with a white 2clue,red4rC,with a red 4clue,white3wD,with a white 3clue,white4wE,with a white 4clue, ​ red5rA,with a red 5clue,black powderB,with a black powder clue,white5wC,with a white 5clue,yellow5yD,with a yellow 5clue, ​

3cards in the deck2cards in the deck1cards in the deck0cards in the deckcards in the deck ​ cards in the deckcards in the deckcards in the deckcards in the deck ​

• Alice clues the unmarked white4w,with a white 4clue, in Emily's hand (finesse) so that Alice has one card fewer to play and shortens the critical path.

Solution

​

A) Alice clues Bob white2w,with a white 2clue, / white2w,with a white 2clue, ❌ does not get the unmarked white3w,with a white 3clue, / white4w,with a white 4clue,

B) Alice clues Donald white3w,with a white 3clue, / white3w,with a white 3clue, ❌ does not get the unmarked white4w,with a white 4clue,

C) Alice clues Emily white4w,with a white 4clue, / white4w,with a white 4clue, ❌ does not get the unmarked white3w,with a white 3clue,

D) Alice discards white4w,with a white 4clue, ✅ finesses up to white4w,with a white 4clue,

E) Alice (mis)plays white4w,with a white 4clue, ❌ interpretation = positional misplay

F) Alice discards slot 1 ✅ Donald and Emily both see Alice could have clued instead white4w,with a white 4clue,

G) Alice (mis)plays slot 1 ❌ interpretation = positional misplay

Other possible options include trash push if both of Emily's other cards are the same rank (not 4) or colour (not white) e.g red1r,with a red 1clue, yellow1y,with a yellow 1clue, then Alice could clue red1r,with a red 1clue, yellow1y,with a yellow 1clue, to Emily's hand white4w,with a white 4clue,red1r,with a red 1clue,yellow1y,with a yellow 1clue,white3w,with a white 3clue, Emily 🡲

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