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Tips spades: Difference between revisions
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Beware the bags, but it's almost always better to underbid than to overbid. | |||
If you have a lot of spades, bid higher. | |||
If you have a lot of spades | |||
'''DECIDING WHETHER TO TRY AND SET THE OPPONENTS, OR MAKE THEM NOT ACHIEVE THEIR TRICKS -''' (assuming no NILS bid) - | |||
If you have the queen of one suit, there is a 55.5% chance that your partner has a card to beat it. So even if your hand with a queen of spades is otherwise very weak, you should not go for a nil unless you are behind by many points, as the success rate is only 55% [you can only expect 100*0.55+(-100)*0.45=10 points from the play, and will likely saddle your partner with bags]. | If a total of 13 is bid. You need all the tricks you can get. Throw away THE lowest cards if you aren't going for it. Sometimes a middle card will take a trick. Any extra 1 sets the opponents. | ||
If 12 is bid. It's only ONE bag if you can't achieve the set. TWO bags and you've set the opponents. Worth it! If you have a few extra spades - might be worth a shot. | |||
If 11 is bid. It is VERY tough to set the opps. You would have to take 3 bags minimum. That is in essence 30 pts you give up and if the other team has bid 3 or 4, probably not worth trying. | |||
If 10 or less is bid. Lots of rounds are going to be low playing as throw away tricks will be important. Be careful leading high cards. (Setting is VERY unlikely. Don't try it! HA!) | |||
'''TIPS FOR GOING NIL -''' | |||
If you have a short suit (1 or 2) that is good. Hopefully they will be played AND you can throw away a card on the 3rd run of that suit. | |||
If you have face cards but also 3 smaller cards in a suit, that is good because you can play the 3 small of the suit (AND probably almost 12 cards will be gone of that suit then). But if you have K or A and only 2 small in the suit - the 3rd round might be yours UNLESS luckily your partner only has/had 2 and now is free to trump. | |||
===Can your partner beat a high card?=== | |||
If you have the queen of one suit, there is a 55.5% chance that your partner has a card to beat it (i.e. king or an ace). So even if your hand with a queen of spades is otherwise very weak, you should not go for a nil unless you are behind by many points, as the base success rate is only 55% [you can only expect 100*0.55+(-100)*0.45=10 points from the play, and will likely saddle your partner with bags]. | |||
If you have the jack of one suit, there is a 70.3% chance that your partner has a card to beat it. | If you have the jack of one suit, there is a 70.3% chance that your partner has a card to beat it. | ||
==Who is undersuited?== | If you have the ten of one suit, there is a 80.2% chance that your partner has a card to beat it. | ||
===Who is undersuited, and by how much?=== | |||
If you have two cards of one suit, there is a 3.3% chance that someone has no cards of that suit (1.1% chance that your partner has no cards in the suit, and 2.2% chance that either of your opponents has no cards in the suit); 19.2% chance that someone has only one card of the suit (6.4%, 12.8%); and 47.7% chance that someone only has two cards of the suit (16.9%, 33.8%) | |||
If you have three cards of one suit, there is a 5. | If you have three cards of one suit, there is a 5.1% chance that someone has no cards of that suit (1.7% chance that your partner has no cards in the suit, and 3.4% that either of your opponents has no cards in that suit); a 25.8% chance that someone has only one card of that suit (8.6%, 17.2%); and 58.5% chance that someone only has two cards of that suit (19.5%, 39%). | ||
If you have four cards of one suit, there is a 7.8% chance that someone has no cards of that suit (2.6% chance that your partner has no cards in the suit); a | If you have four cards of one suit, there is a 7.8% chance that someone has no cards of that suit (2.6% chance that your partner has no cards in the suit, and 5.2% that either of your opponents has no cards in that suit); a 35% chance that someone only has one card of that suit (11.7%, 23.4%); and 70% chance that someone only has two cards of that suit (23.3%, 46.6%). | ||
Latest revision as of 00:52, 6 February 2024
Beware the bags, but it's almost always better to underbid than to overbid.
If you have a lot of spades, bid higher.
DECIDING WHETHER TO TRY AND SET THE OPPONENTS, OR MAKE THEM NOT ACHIEVE THEIR TRICKS - (assuming no NILS bid) -
If a total of 13 is bid. You need all the tricks you can get. Throw away THE lowest cards if you aren't going for it. Sometimes a middle card will take a trick. Any extra 1 sets the opponents.
If 12 is bid. It's only ONE bag if you can't achieve the set. TWO bags and you've set the opponents. Worth it! If you have a few extra spades - might be worth a shot.
If 11 is bid. It is VERY tough to set the opps. You would have to take 3 bags minimum. That is in essence 30 pts you give up and if the other team has bid 3 or 4, probably not worth trying.
If 10 or less is bid. Lots of rounds are going to be low playing as throw away tricks will be important. Be careful leading high cards. (Setting is VERY unlikely. Don't try it! HA!)
TIPS FOR GOING NIL -
If you have a short suit (1 or 2) that is good. Hopefully they will be played AND you can throw away a card on the 3rd run of that suit.
If you have face cards but also 3 smaller cards in a suit, that is good because you can play the 3 small of the suit (AND probably almost 12 cards will be gone of that suit then). But if you have K or A and only 2 small in the suit - the 3rd round might be yours UNLESS luckily your partner only has/had 2 and now is free to trump.
Can your partner beat a high card?
If you have the queen of one suit, there is a 55.5% chance that your partner has a card to beat it (i.e. king or an ace). So even if your hand with a queen of spades is otherwise very weak, you should not go for a nil unless you are behind by many points, as the base success rate is only 55% [you can only expect 100*0.55+(-100)*0.45=10 points from the play, and will likely saddle your partner with bags].
If you have the jack of one suit, there is a 70.3% chance that your partner has a card to beat it.
If you have the ten of one suit, there is a 80.2% chance that your partner has a card to beat it.
Who is undersuited, and by how much?
If you have two cards of one suit, there is a 3.3% chance that someone has no cards of that suit (1.1% chance that your partner has no cards in the suit, and 2.2% chance that either of your opponents has no cards in the suit); 19.2% chance that someone has only one card of the suit (6.4%, 12.8%); and 47.7% chance that someone only has two cards of the suit (16.9%, 33.8%)
If you have three cards of one suit, there is a 5.1% chance that someone has no cards of that suit (1.7% chance that your partner has no cards in the suit, and 3.4% that either of your opponents has no cards in that suit); a 25.8% chance that someone has only one card of that suit (8.6%, 17.2%); and 58.5% chance that someone only has two cards of that suit (19.5%, 39%).
If you have four cards of one suit, there is a 7.8% chance that someone has no cards of that suit (2.6% chance that your partner has no cards in the suit, and 5.2% that either of your opponents has no cards in that suit); a 35% chance that someone only has one card of that suit (11.7%, 23.4%); and 70% chance that someone only has two cards of that suit (23.3%, 46.6%).